Predictions

Predictions

We make decisions with the information we have. Challenges to making accurate predictions include filtering information for relevance and accounting for Bayesian probabilities.

When I am making a decision about how to spend my time and attention, a natural filter asks 'Is this use of time and attention moving me toward my goals?'

As potentially new information makes itself available, I ask, 'Is this information relevant to my existing goals, or is it a distraction?' 'Does this new information present new risks, new opportunities?' Or even, 'Do I now have strong reasons to alter my goals?'

With new information, I am a new person.

Bandwidth and Memory Issues

Being open to receiving and downloading new information into existing models is difficult, yet necessary. Without incorporating new information into our existing working models, we might, in our minds, live in a different world than actually exists. (To a large extent, our brains seem to process the world--of which we are a symbiotic part--in such a way as to make us useful within it.)

Because I am not always able to immediately update my models completely--residue of old insights lingers--I find it useful to look again at what I have noticed has potential utility. This searching again (research) gives spaced repetition we understand is important to learning.

Much information is in our body, physiologically. You might refer to these as physical skills, like how to grip the bar prior to performing a dead lift, or how to crack an egg to avoid getting pieces of the shell in your pan. Mental skills are nice too, like knowing how to remain calm or calm oneself once agitated in the presence of unexpected bad news.

2020

The start of a new year carries hope. And yet each day is a new day. Each moment is too. Why wait for the next orbit around the sun to change yourself, to make yourself more adaptive to the current environment?

Today is Monday, Jan 6, 2020. Here are a few predictions this year.

Personal

I will learn how to say No to people and projects, which has especially been difficult when I see potential in the people or projects. All projects are a kind of leap of faith.

Dr. Chisholm's Autobiography

My current writing collaboration. We will complete this book and prepare it for publication.

Octalysis Prime

This project I can directly impact. Here are my revenue predictions:

Probability Revenue
40% >=100% Increase
25% 50% <> 100% Increase
25% 0% <> 50% Increase
10% < 0% Increase

I am bullish this year with respect to Octalysis Prime's potential for revenue growth. My optimism is informed by improvements to our product and the more than 50 members annual membership upgrades that occurred in the last week of 2019 and the first week of 2020, some of which were upgrades from free accounts.

Yu-kai's personal brand is strong, as is the reputation of his consulting company, The Octalysis Group. Our primary funnel into the education business is through yukaichou.com, which receives between 20-30k visitors per month.

My responsibilities include Community & Relationship Management in addition to Content Creation on yukaichou.com.

Things I'm Not Working On

A novel. This could change if I complete other priorities faster than expected.

Edit: 08 Jan 2020 - I could easily see working on a novel this year.